kasmenon

Acknowledgement: extracts from research and published articles  History has a habit of returning in unexpected forms. Today’s confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran in the Persian Gulf evokes a parallel with one of history's most famous military disasters the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE . At that moment, the mighty Roman Empire marched east convinced that Persia would collapse under the weight of Roman power. Instead, Rome encountered a civilization that understood how to defeat stronger enemies through strategy, patience, and geography. Two thousand years later, the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz suggests that the ancient Persian lesson may still be relevant. It seems that  the European plus the US plus zionists have not learnt from history.  The Roman disaster began with the ambitions of Marcus Licinius Crassus , one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in Rome. Before him   Julius Caesar and Pompey acheived glory . While Caesar...

When dictators or charismatic one man rulers ( Example Gadaffi, Saddam, Xi , Putin, Mao, Stalin, Erdogan, Netanyahu,  MBD, Modi, Trump, Paki army rulers,  various gulf rulers, African rulers, Khomeni and Khamenei etc) are overthrown or die in office, after decades of rule,  the countries they rule find it tough to transit.  Deviating a little, back home, one man or women  party in india ( AIDMK, Shiv Sena, NCP, DMK, Congress under Gandhis) are also like that.  Where dictators ruled , chaos may prevail for years after they are no longer there.Or new ones emerge.  Democracies,  though, manage somehow. Kings and monarch or religion dominated political rules,   manage to have a succession plan and goes through with it,  albeit occasional killings happen before that.  The only ones that go on with some stability are mature democracies like UK. West Europe, even immature democratic India, Canada, Australia, NZ and even the US( Trump ...

  Many leaders world over, at least those who belong to the 50+ generation and essentially the democratically inclined world, beleive the post war world order based on rules, treaties and decent diplomacy is over. Its now based on exentric, egoistic and, in many ways, whimsical leaders who , ride on a rightist nationalistic rethoric   wave and try to influence the world.   However , fundamentally, one factor remains the same. The powerful among them , economically and militarily,  continue to have  considerably more influence on matters.  While this has been so,  for thousands of years, technology, media and super fast information flow has ensured the influences impact quick and fast. Leaving most nations clueless. By the time they figure it out,  things have drastically changed again. So the future will retain this characteristic of speedy actions and influence. Interdependence , however.  remain  strong. This means that short ter...

On the eve of the Budget,  the futility is depressing but the ignorance is becoming a tragedy.   We boast, or at least the lords who govern us asks us to digest, that we are the 4th largest economy !   Fact:  #  Nominal per capita income stands at roughly USD 2,818  per annum. In  *nominal per capita terms, India is ranked around 144th globally*..   For whom are we 4th largest , exactly? Yes, India has overtaken Japan in total GDP . But when that wealth is divided among 1.4 billion people, reality looks very different.  Even on purchasing power parity , we are still only around 125th. These rankings are not academic. They define how people live. Net FDI is now negative Wealth continues to concentrate at the top, with * one percent of the population controlling nearly half the country’s wealth *. Consumption keeps struttering. Lending or credit off-take is  a laggard. Sluggish  deposts. Unemployment consistantly at al...

Traditional and, in particular, post ww2 processes and routes towards dealing with natiinal interests ( in this case US) was based on slow diplomatic talks and pressures , leverage  international bodies like UN , world Bank , IMF etc  to advantage.  Even though the US and other developed nations manipulated the process through back door efforts, it still meant slow progress and often a stalemate. So, as a conseqence, the US often tried to use  force to get what it wants ( Middle east , Afghanistan for US . Falkland,  Argentina in case of UK, Ukraine for US and Russia) with doubtful results. Still, the balance of power , economic development of China , weakness of UK and EU, conservative US leadership etc  made US efforts less effective. Then comes Trump's second term.  He had no faith in the slow uncertain process. He is a impatient deal maker used to taking huge risks. He saw through the system in his first term. So he starts by shaking up the slee...