THE LONAVALA DAYS

 

INTERNATIONAL NEWS AND OPINION

FRENCH ELECTION

The Presidential election began in France today morning. It will be completed by 8pm.
Emmanuel Macron, the current president, is aiming for a second term.
He is seen as a centrist, representing En Marche party and attracting voters from the right and left. 
Le Pen, his rival is from the far-right National party
The left does not want Le Pe, for obvious reasons, and thus ends up supporting Macron.

Both fought the first round with other candidates. Both fought the last election too.
Le Pe and her party is similar to Modi and BJP. She is against minorities, has a race bias and very pro-business houses. She supports Putin though (again similarity with home) while Macron is, obviously, against.
Opinion polls have put Macron ahead. Also, latest projections too.
France does not depend on exit polls (unlike other EU countries, where exits polls are allowed while voting is on). Once polls close, a sample of polling stations are taken (officials count ballots while polling is on at intervals and post it using software) and ballots counted. There are used as inputs for projections. Results are announced and, in the past, they tally well with the final results later.

It’s good that we do not have a far-right leader and head in a key country. Divisiveness has to be rooted out everywhere.
UKRAINE.
Everyone is surprised at what Putin is doing and confounded too!! Specially the US. The War is still on. No one knows what is the objective. After wild speculations, the media has toned down their rhetoric. Barring few, including one or two Indian ones. These Indian ones have pumped so much resources into coverage, all of that pro Ukraine, that one wonders where the funds come from.
It seems though the pattern is emerging. Had hinted about this earlier too. Putin does not want to take over Ukraine. That is now certain. He would never want to get permanently bogged down there for years. His strategic objective then would be to wear down Ukraine and make it incapable of being used as a front by the US and allies to trouble Russia.
Here is how he seems to be doing that:
1. Destroying many military infrastructures across the country. Eliminate whatever sir defence system they have.
2. Create a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine. That is the east and south parts of Ukraine. The Dombas region, Crimea and the port city Mariupol are all now not under Ukraine forces. Few areas are administered by Rebels set up by Russia. Mariupol will ensure Ukraine’s access to the most important port for exports is no longer available, hurting it economically.
3. Putin is keeping the administration of key cities, say Kharkiv, Kyiv   etc, and its people on tenterhooks. If you tract the trend, it looks. Like he bombs these cities for few days then withdraws. Goes elsewhere and intensifies the fight there. Later after few weeks returns to the earlier cities. This renders everything chaotic and the uncertainty raises the stress levels. Ukrainian and some foreign forces (through mercenaries) are unable to move their forces in this pattern.
He may go on and on. Not stretching his resources. He also may now be aware of the shortcomings of his men and equipment and hence will keep this war of attrition on. The US's sanctions (in addition to the same against China) is now hurting them too and also the whole world. Putin may have factored this, though the pains of this extended war may be severe for his nation.
Not until the US and its allies realise the folly of trying to surround Russia (against the agreement signed by these countries with former Soviet Union when the dismantling of SU took place,) will we see the war end.  Zelensky is caught between the devil and the deep sea. He is a puppet now trapped. Russia will, no doubt, bleed but it may not have had a choice. That’s the real politics played by the big countries.
Lastly billions of dollars’ worth of arms are now being sent to the war zone making all those in the military industrial complex laugh all the way to the bank. Even Slovakia was forced by EU to send Russian MIG-21s to help Ukraine. Here too these   aircrafts will be replaced later by all these nations, including Russia, in the future.
India now finds it has a huge bargaining chip in its hand. The US and allies want India to take their side so that Russia is isolated further but more importantly that stand will ensure no future Russian arms for India. The US is worried that this unique situation of China, Russia and India having convergence of views   may result in a new alliance. It may spoil US plans to irritate China by provoking India’s anti-China stand. India is acting tough and making the US bend. It will take its pound of flesh from Russia too later.
Let-s wait and watch.......

ukraine# , Russia# , war# , international# putin#